Table of contents
Meat
Market developments according to MLA, Finco, Beef Central and APL.
Beef
Due to south-east Queensland weather events in March and general wet weather since December, there has been a reduction in cattle leading to an overall weaker supply. This is putting pressure on the already high demand that is currently being experienced in the market, leading to predicted high prices on the majority of cuts in the coming months.
Cattle projections from Meat and Livestock Australia have predicted the cattle herd will fall by 1.4% to 30.1 million head during 2025, which is largely due to the continued turnoff of older breeding cows. The decrease in the cattle herd is expected to continue for the foreseeable future however, this decrease in herd size is not expected to affect the slaughter rate, which should keep production levels high.
Lamb
Lamb and sheep production levels continue to remain well above long-term averages. Experts predict these levels will be the new normal. Changes in lamb genetics have focused on improving weight gain and yield in lamb carcasses, which has assisted with higher product levels despite a small decline in the national sheep flock. The current market is showing to be more stable compared to recent months, which has seen volatile high pricing coming through processors.
Pork
Pig supply has shown some improvements compared to numbers experienced at the end of summer. This has resulted in more product becoming readily available in chilled form, with product finally being put into the freezer. Some pricing relief should soon be seen in the market as supply improves.
Poultry
Supply and demand have been stable, with minimal shortages of product in the market. The pricing increase predicated from the end of summer has yet to materialise, although, due to the short grow times of birds, it is possible that this could change quickly.
Seafood
Norwegian salmon
Prices remain under pressure due to high supply with substantial changes in weekly export volumes in the range of 2000 – 3000t WFE, which has driven significant price fluctuations. The high supply stems from strong biological growth, favourable farming conditions with reduced losses, increased biomass in key regions and fewer downgrades in February which dropped 21% versus 37% at the same time last year. A decline in fixed-price contracts is also a factor driving this price pressure, pushing more volume into the sports market. Many farmers are anticipating higher prices, which is contributing to more hesitation in securing contracts, leading to weaker spot prices.
Basa
Raw material availability has shown signs of gradual recovery following a period of severe scarcity. Current supply is still falling short of market demand particularly for smaller sizes (120 – 170g, 170 – 220g) in Europe, Australia, Mexico and the US, and larger sizes (400g+, 500g+) in Egypt, Pakistan, Israel and Brazil.
As a result, the continued mismatch between supply and demand for these key sizes has caused prices to increase. If this trend persists, it is anticipated further price increases in the near future.
Barramundi (imported)
Due to unfavourable weather conditions barramundi prices have risen sharply in Vietnam, with Saudi barramundi prices also experiencing a sharp rise in prices. Fortunately, contracts in place have helped mitigate the impact of these rising costs, also ensuring ongoing and stable supply.
Prawns
Vannamei
Due to cooler than normal weather from December through to February, baby shrimp farmers experienced very high mortality rates, with some exceeding 70%. From mid-March, farmers are stocking ponds for the first crop of the season, and if weather conditions remain favourable, the first peak harvest is expected from June onwards.
Raw material supply is still limited and prices remain on the higher side. Demand from key markets such as the US, Japan and the EU have been strong, with the Australian market experiencing moderate demand.
Even with limited supply and strong demand from some countries, there has been a softening demand for larger grades which is preventing prices from rising further. Raw material prices remain high and a softening trend may begin in May, depending on weather patterns and farming success during the current crop cycle.
Queensland East Coast King
Prices remain elevated due to the restricted early season supply, however, it is anticipated improvements in catch volumes to increase in the coming months. Seasonal demand patterns leading into the winter months may also play a role in stabilising the market as availability improves.
Wheat
Market developments according to Mauri ANZ.
Domestic
USDA increased the Australian 2024-25 wheat crop to 34.1mmt, in line with ABARES, with exports kept at 25.0mmt. These figures look high given the recent pace, however, with Russia not competitive in South-East Asia, this pace could increase further. Old crops are quiet and underlying demand for low-grade wheat going into livestock homes and exports is strong, which is reflected in the price. New crop markets remain wide with sellers reluctant to move until a good break in weather is seen before planting season starts. BOM rainfall forecast shows favourable rain for southern New South Wales and parts of Victoria.
Global
USDA shows an increase in major export production, primarily in Australia, and an increase in ending stocks. Despite this, the market maintains a focus on new crops. Concerns over dry weather in the Black Sea, Eastern Europe and the US saw the market move higher. Turkey and Iran are now back in the buying market for wheat, however, good local crops have seen slow demand this season. Iraq has announced 2.00mmt of wheat to export this year, a high turnaround for the usual importer and a potential shift to be seen in the Middle East markets if this continues.
