Table of contents
Meat
Market developments according to MLA, Finco, Beef Central and APL.
Beef
- Beef exports are expected to remain strong as the US continues to rebuild their nation’s herd, trim has also been in high demand which is expected to continue. The largest increase in Australian beef exports has been to the North American market, where numbers have doubled and demand is expected to grow.
- Cattle slaughter reached record numbers in July, with slightly high figures expected to continue for the next couple of months, then predicted to ease slightly. The past few months has shown cattle slaughter numbers tracking safely above five year averages.
Lamb
- Heading into spring, the industry comes into prime lambing season with predictions for lamb productions to slow slightly as flock numbers rebuild. Quality finished lamb may be harder to find and the reduction in numbers may continue until the new season enters the market.
- Lamb exports have continued to grow recently with the biggest increase experienced in the Middle Eastern and North African regions. If the export market growth continues, pressure will then be placed on the domestic market to keep up with demand, especially if production rates fall as expected.
Pork
- Australian Pork Limited has launched their latest ‘Get some pork on your fork’ brand campaign. This campaign aims to address domestic barriers around pork consumption in Australia. Although aimed at retail and end users, this can translate to the foodservice industry as pork will be front-of-mind with consumer ordering.
- Pricing is expected to remain consistent for the rest of winter. However, processors are already seeing an increase in enquiries coming through for spring, which could suggest that a tightening of supply is coming.
Poultry
- Coming into the end of winter, chicken supply has tightened slightly, however, this is due to an increase in demand for the protein. With supply tightening, the pricing of chicken breasts is expected to increase slightly. Avian influenza has been in the news recently, though at this stage it is only affecting very few egg farms with prime chicken product not impacted.
Seafood
Norwegian salmon
After two years of reduced production, global farmed salmon supply is expected to see a slight increase. Norwegian salmon farmers are anticipated to boost production during the warmer summer months, overcoming challenges faced earlier in the year.
Analysts project that Norway, along with Scotland, will drive this supply growth in the second half of 2024. Norwegian production is expected to increase by just over 1%, reaching 1.5 million metric tons, while Scotland’s production is forecasted to rise by 16%, totalling 172,500 metric tons.
Recent challenges in Norway, such as sea lice and jellyfish attacks, have significantly impacted production, leading to issues of lower fish weights and biomasses. Despite these difficulties, prices have corrected and are now below the 2022 and 2023 levels. Prices are expected to remain at good levels until November when it is expected that prices will increase in line with annual trends.
Basa
Over the past year, Basa prices have been slightly below 2023 levels. European demand has improved year-on-year, 14% higher in the first half of the year, although export volumes to the EU have been easing slightly. Vietnam’s export price to the EU increased from last year, with volumes remaining steady.
Low fingerling prices could result in tight raw material supply in late August and September, as indicated by reduced pond stocking. This should underpin a current hold in prices with a potential increase from the USA and China alongside demand.
Barramundi
Imported
The supply of barramundi from Taiwan remains tight, leading to elevated prices. This has shifted purchasing to Vietnam which is set to stay steady in the second half of 2024. In recent years, Vietnam has significantly increased its barramundi production, offering high-quality fish and enhanced processing techniques. This has resulted in a superior product with improved bone-checking methods that greatly reduce the risk of bones remaining in the fillets.
Queensland (wild caught)
The Gulf barramundi season has produced well with consistent catches, good numbers and healthy ‘fat‘ fish giving the market a top-quality protein to offer. This is off the back of an abundance of other produce after a more than generous wet season. Only now that the cold weather has set in are numbers dwindling a little. This is due to barramundi not moving around as much, preferring to use as little energy as possible.
Some fishermen anticipate that once the water temperatures level out, barramundi will be in large numbers again. This is a good sign for end-of-year catches and will enable high stock levels until the end of the off-season.
Lobster
Brazil
The Brazilian lobster season at its mid-way point looks like a lower catch compared to last years season, especially for tails. However, prices are still holding firm for all whole frozen product. The second half of the season will see competition with Caribbean producers and some weakening in the Chinese whole raw position is expected. Whole cooked Brazil lobster could soon be the only option for the Australian market as political relationships with China get back on track.
Florida
The season in Florida is due to re-open at the beginning of August, with most of the catches expected to be directed to China as live.
Canada
Overall, it was a successful season with great weather conditions for fishing which resulted in good catch rates. Landings were up 30 – 40% compared to last year, which drove shore and wholesale prices down. Before the start of the season, shore prices were as high as $20.00/lb, then dropping as low as $6.00-6.50/lb once landings from new LFA’s accumulated in inventory. The dramatic drop in live lobster prices brought processors back into the game and led to an increase in lobster tail and meat production, which caused a price decrease. Now that the spring season has ended and raw material availability is limited, supply and demand have become more balanced.
Western Australian rock
The new 12 month quota season is now underway with significantly higher quota prices expected as returns to China for live sales gain momentum. Whole raw production for China for B through to E sizes should provide a strong minimum base with expectations of very limited frozen cooked production outside of A sizes. Catch efforts from earlier this month have shown to be very limited and focused almost entirely on live demand. Wholesalers are now planning what to do with their summer requirements with limited inventory and potential future supply.
Oysters
New Zealand Pacific
Stock numbers on the farms have stabilised and will increase with the addition of new wild suppliers. It is expected that stock will be available each month until the end of the year with standard and medium sizes approximately 80% of the total harvest with larger sizes remaining in short supply.
Scallops
Japan
The ban on all Japanese seafood imports by China has created some long-term challenges. Buying has already commenced in Vietnam, where processing costs are lower than in China. New season Japanese scallops will be available for processing within the coming months, although prices are yet to be determined.
Canada
There is concern about the current supply situation with catches being much lower than usual. The pack mix is still on the smaller side which is putting constraints on the larger sizes (U10’s.), with the selling price for U10’s now upwards of $85.00/kg AUD. The US market is still very strong which is keeping products moving, but at a very high price.
Peru
Production has increased with offerings of roe-on scallop meat at very high price levels compared to those of Vietnam and the last remaining stock from China. The increase in the product may be due to the drop in water temperatures after they were unseasonably warm last season.
Squid
Japan common
The Chinese fishing moratorium in the Bohai and Yellow Sea ended in the middle of August, with landings sporadic. There are ongoing political fishing issues in the North Korean zone where a large aggregation of this species have been prevalent in the past few years due to climate change. These problems will continue in the long term with uncertainty around how the prices will evolve when catches start in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Chinese territorial zone.
New Zealand arrow
With the season finished, prices have been extremely high, which has resulted in a reduction of overall forecasted sales. Arrow squid will continue to be purchased by customers who demand this high-quality product.
Gigas
The season has finished with only a small percentage of the previous year’s volumes being landed. This has resulted in a significant global shortage of gigas squid which accounts for the majority of value-added and natural squid products sold throughout Australia.
Wheat
Market developments according to Mauri ANZ.
Domestic
Australian wheat prices have struggled to follow US markets, despite the stronger AUD. Weekly rainfall has been improving but continues to be below average across the Port Adelaide region. Current 2024 – 25 Australian wheat production forecasts now range from 28-31.5mmt (vs 26.4mmt five year average).
Global
Increased wheat production in the US and Canada has weighed on the future markets, whilst prices in Europe and Australia have been slow to follow. Harvest in France has been very slow to start due to wet weather with the early yield and quality data unfavourable.
Dairy
Market developments according to Anchor Food Professionals Global Dairy Intelligence Group.
Dairy exports
Australia
Australian dairy exports increased 13.8%, or 8,538 MT, compared to the same period the year prior. The increase was mainly due to higher export volumes of cheese, SMP and butter, as rising milk flows have increased the availability of products. Exports for the previous 12 months were down 13.0%, or 96,684 MT, on the previous comparable period. This was predominately due to the disconnect between Australia’s domestic milk price and global commodity price, making Australian exports less competitive.
New Zealand
Total New Zealand dairy exports decreased 10.8%, or 35,203 MT, compared to the same period the year prior. The decrease was mainly due to lower export volumes of WMP to China, Algeria and Indonesia. This was partially offset by higher export volumes of fluid milk products. Exports for the previous 12 months were up 6.1%, or 205,893 MT, on the earlier comparable period, mainly due to higher overall export volumes of WMP, SMP and fluid milk products. comparable period. This was mainly due to higher export volumes of WMP and SMP to China as demand recovered.
United States
US dairy exports decreased 3.6%, or 9,166 MT, compared to the same period the year prior. The decrease was due to lower export volumes of SMP, which was partially offset by ongoing high export volumes of cheese, with increased shipments to Mexico, Canada, and East Asia. Exports for the previous 12 months were down 7.0%, or 203,126 MT, on the former comparable period. This was mainly due to lower export volumes of powders as demand from key markets subdued, alongside lower export volumes of butter due to higher prices relative to the rest of the world when sales were booked.
European Union
EU dairy exports decreased 12.8%, or 76,732 MT, compared to the same period the year prior. The decrease was driven by lower export volumes of fluid milk products, cheese and SMP to China and Egypt due to competitive pricing from other regions. Exports for the 12 months prior were down 2.0%, or 130,310 MT, on the previous comparable period. This was due to ongoing lower export volumes of infant formula to China, alongside shifts in processing decisions towards other dairy products amidst changing market demands.
Milk Production
Australia
Australian milk production increased by 2.8% compared to the same period the year prior. The increase was due to favourable weather conditions and the ongoing availability of irrigation water. Australian milk production over the last 12 months was up 2.5% on the previous comparable period.
New Zealand
New Zealand milk production was down 4.1% on a litre basis (down 2.6% on a milk solids basis) compared to the same period the year prior. The decrease was due to unfavourable weather conditions affecting pasture growth alongside farmers drying off in preparation for the next season. New Zealand milk production for the prior 12 months was down 0.2% on the previous comparable period.
United States
US milk production decreased 0.4% compared to the same period the year prior. The decrease was mainly driven by a reduction in herd sizes and the ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Texas. US milk production for the 12 months was down 0.3% on the previous comparable period.
European Union
EU milk production increased by 0.6% compared to the same period the year prior. The increase was driven by growth in Germany and France, offsetting declines in key producing nations such as Ireland, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. EU milk production for the prior 12 months was up 0.1% on the previous comparable period.
