Table of contents
Meat
Market developments according to MLA, Finco, Beef Central and APL.
Beef
High demand for cattle is evident across the market, with 2025 seeing a spike in the national cattle saleyard pricing indicators. The benchmark pricing measure, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator, is rising to approximately 700c/ kg carcase weight. Large parts of Queensland and New South Wales have received significant rainfall over December and January. With more wet weather expected, reductions in the number of cattle coming through the saleyards are predicted. Export beef prices for trimmings into the US have continued at an upward trend and have reached record pricing, making it favourable for exporting.
Lamb
2025 lamb and sheep production has started strong, with high production levels recorded. This is positive, as higher production levels are coming through after a lower-than-expected summer production. National lamb indicators have finished January at higher levels, with pricing 65- 75x firmer than the previous time last year. This pricing is consistent across all producers and regions, with processors passing these costs onto their customers.
Pork
Pig supply will continue to be an issue as hot and humid weather persists with numbers decreasing and smaller pigs coming through production due to these weather conditions. There is currently record pricing for pork belly due to extremely high demand across the country. Pork legs and ribs are also seeing higher pricing, although production has improved for these items and supply should gradually start to stabilise. Some producers are predicting short supply and increased pricing will persist until possibly the Easter break.
Poultry
Some processors indicate that whole bird pricing may increase towards the end of summer, although this is yet to be seen in the domestic market. Supply and demand have been stable, with minimal shortages in the market.
Seafood
Norwegian salmon
Norwegian salmon farming saw strong production early in the season, but supply is now constrained due to colder water conditions following a hot summer. The colder water is delaying fish growth, leading to a tighter supply amidst increasing demand. The Weekly Salmon Index shows that current market dynamics are resulting in slightly higher prices, and a significant price increase in the first half of this year. Prices are expected to remain elevated until the summer season in Norway, limiting the production of frozen salmon and narrowing opportunities to secure stock at more favourable prices.
Basa
Basa raw material supply is gradually recovering but is still falling short of meeting the high demand for small sizes (120- 170g, 170-220g) from Europe, Australia, Mexico and the US, and large sizes (400g+, 500g+) from Egypt, Pakistan, Israel and Brazil. With the limited supply driving price increases for key sizes, continued shortages may result in further price hikes.
Pangasius farming decreased at the end of last year. Unfavourable weather conditions and disease outbreaks have contributed to high fish losses and reduced expansion of farming areas. Ongoing shortages of empty containers and mother ships are causing delays and elevated costs, with current freight rates for a 20-ft container to Sydney/Brisbane ranging from $1,900 to $2,100.
Prawns
Vannamei
Vietnam is currently in the low season for Vannamei prawn production, which has led to a tight supply and elevated pricing in the market. This is a typical trend for this time of year, as farming cycles are at a natural low point. At the end of 2024, the Vannamei industry in Vietnam faced significant challenges due to widespread disease outbreaks that impacted several major farming regions, leading to high mortality rates and reduced production capacity.
Farmers struggled to contain the disease, resulting in delays in harvesting schedules and a strain on supply chains. The outbreaks not only disrupted the production process but also increased costs for disease management and recovery efforts. As a result, the already limited supply during the low season was further constrained, intensifying price increases in both domestic and international markets.
The new production season is set to commence in May/June, which should stabilise supply and lead to more competitive pricing for the remainder of the year. Preparation for the new season is underway and there are efforts to enhance farming efficiency, implement stricter disease control measures, and ensure robust harvests to meet market demand.
Queensland East Coast King
The new season of Queensland East King prawns has commenced with limited volumes being caught. This is a typical trend at the start of the season and catches are expected to improve moving into March and April. Prices remain elevated due to the restricted early-season supply, however, we anticipate improvements as catch volumes increase in the coming months. Seasonal demand patterns leading into the winter months may also play a role in stabilising the market as availability improves.
Squid
New Zealand arrow
Korean boats were looking for New Zealand arrow squid in December and had small landings of larger squid which were the leftovers from last season before they spawn and die, which meant very few small squid landed. Despite some optimistic predictions late last year, there doesn’t seem to be any drop in prices of New Zealand’s finished product for the Australian market for the foreseeable future.
Gigas
Chinese jigger vessels have now moved to an area further north closer to the equator, with the landings averaging 3 to 5MT per day, and unsure whether these catches will improve or not. There has been some optimism that the prices will soften a little, however, this remains to be seen, with Gigas squid catches in February showing a better idea of how the market will progress. The lack of volume of larger squid being caught will not help as the processors will start targeting smaller squid and turning those into squid strips, taking away raw materials required for squid tubes and fillets for the market.
Scallops
China
Existing stocks of Chinese scallops are exhausted and the Chinese farmed Patinopecten scallops are being taken out of the water early and sold live to restaurants at high prices. In the long term, it may be hard for workers to compete with the low labour costs from Vietnam. The only scallops from China may be roe-less bay scallops (Argopecten irridians), which are much smaller in size and farmed in the Bohai Sea near Dalian. These are cheaper and are likely to remain at consistent levels.
Japan
The outlook on prices of Japanese scallops is not looking favourable. It is still debatable whether Chinese processors will be procuring any shell stocks to turn into meat for export, but most will likely be buying bulk frozen already shucked meat.
Japanese divers have surveyed all the farming areas and are predicting this season to be in the region of 265,000MT. This is inclusive of scallops with roe-on and without roes which will be harvested in July. The process of buying scallop meat directly from Japan may not be viable due to the higher prices being quoted.
New Zealand Pacific oysters
Oyster production and supply for 2025 are expected to be similar to the same period last year. The wild season finished in late 2024 with good quantities of product secured from new farmers throughout the year. It is expected that similar volumes will be harvested towards the middle of the year, with a larger size assortment to help move smaller grades. From January, farmers have lowered harvests to match market demand and conserve hatchery oysters.
New Zealand Green Lip mussels
New Zealand mussels are steady, in demand and stable. Prices are similar to what we have seen over the last 12 months. Production and supply are expected to be consistent over the rest of the season.
Wheat
Market developments according to Mauri ANZ.
Domestic
Australian wheat continues to defend a weak dollar and offshore prices are back near contract lows, however, onshore prices have remained mostly stable. Last week’s rainfall saw growers scrambling to get crops off before it came, with Central and Southern NSW the worst hit. Protein availability is good in QLD and parts of NSW, with export demand also strong. VIC and SA will need assessing after the rain event and WA is starting to become a concern.
Global
A firmer tone was set again in the US market last week despite the US dollar strengthening. Stronger US export sales, especially on mid and high proteins, and ongoing tension in the Black Sea all supported prices last week. Argentina has overtaken Russia as the cheapest wheat origin with the harvest 50% complete and yields are being reported as better than expected in places. The latest USDA report will be out this week but there is a general lack of consensus on which way the market should be trading. All eyes are on Russian export numbers which the trade believes will decline.
