Table of contents
Meat
Market developments according to MLA, Finco, Beef Central and APL.
Beef
According to Meat & Livestock Australia’s Cattle Industry Projections, national cattle herds have stabilised, nonetheless, beef production is expected to reach record levels before the end of 2025. Key drivers of this growth include ideal weather conditions, increased productivity at abattoirs and feedlots, and strong export demands. Beef exports have risen by 11% compared to this time last year, with the highest monthly volume on record exported in August 2025. Favourable exchange rates and strong demand from the US have further supported this export growth. Due to continued high demand, beef prices are expected to rise through the end of the year, after which both pricing and production are anticipated to stabilise early in 2026.
Lamb
Key sheep and lamb production regions continue to face challenging conditions. The majority of lambs currently being sold through saleyards are coming from drought-affected or low rainfall areas, resulting in reduced availability and lighter carcass weights. This trend is expected to continue through to the end of 2025. While the first batch of new season lambs has begun to enter the market, recent adverse conditions are likely to keep prices elevated.
Pork
Pork prices have recently stabilised but remain at historically high levels, consistent with trends over the past few months. Due to these high prices, many producers have been unable to build up frozen stock reserves during the winter months; a common practice to ensure availability during the peak pre-Christmas period. As we approach the end of the year, prices are expected to rise further in line with seasonal demand.
Poultry
Major producers have begun implementing price increases previously announced over recent months, with some adjustments now occurring almost weekly. These increases are being passed on to the market quickly. For now, demand remains strong, and supply disruptions have been limited. However, due to poultry’s short production cycle, ongoing high demand could put pressure on supply in the near future.
Seafood
Salmon
Recent price declines have halted, supported by strong Asian demand, particularly from China and Japan with the European market also remaining steady. Harvest volumes have normalised, easing supply pressure and biological conditions have been positive, with healthy weight gain and good fish quality.
Basa
Tight raw material supply, combined with renewed global demand is expected to sustain elevated pangasius prices from now until early next year. Exporters are responding by investing in hatchery improvements, expanding farming areas and enhancing disease prevention to stabilise long-term supply.
Barramundi (Taiwan)
Current supply is low and just meeting current demand requirements. 100/200 sizes remain scarce, while 200/300 sizes are more readily available, and 300/500 and 500/800 are at normal levels. Harvests have been stable despite typhoons, which is providing confidence for the 2026 season. The Taiwanese market has developed a strategic plan to avoid oversupply and keep prices stable for the months ahead.
Ling
The season is underway, with early pricing suggesting a strong year ahead. The demand remains high in Chile and Spain, with prices expected to remain at current high levels.
Hoki
The peak season is now concluding however, Australia’s catch numbers remain stable with most of the supply being caught outside of peak season. Fish sizes have been larger, with an abundance of 6 – 8oz portions. Prices are expected to remain stable.
Oreo (Smooth) Dory
This year’s season has just begun, with last year’s fillet stock sold out. Good volumes of large dressed fish were caught earlier in the year, however, lower fillet availability is expected as more processing remains for onboard vessels.
Orange Roughy
Quotas have been significantly reduced by the NZ government, with the aim to support long-term fishery health, but in the short term will tighten supply. There is good supply expected for high-quality Australian produced Orange Roughy fillets.
Gigas Squid (China)
Catches have been recovering from the previous season, with prices to remain relatively high due to last year’s shortage. The market remains volatile, with price swings expected as fishing shifts across seasonal grounds. It is anticipated firming pricing conditions and orders in advance will help avoid the impact of higher prices.
New Zealand
Green Lip Mussels
South Island harvesting has commenced, with North Island harvesting expected to resume within the coming weeks.
Oysters
Supply and conditions are good with stable pricing, and overall volumes are expected to meet summer demand. The main season will continue towards the end of November, with adequate stock to cover all demand for the festive period.
Prawns
Vannamei (Thailand)
The prawn market in Thailand is expected to decline by around 3% over the remainder of the year, with prices forecast to increase into early 2026. Farmers in Southern Thailand have adjusted stock densities and replaced baby prawns to improve survival rates, leading to fewer large prawns available towards the end of the year.
Ongoing US tariffs on competing prawn origins have decreased Thai supply, with the festive season driving factories to secure more larger sizes for export to China and Australia. Farmers are focussing on survival rates over density to ensure steady supply of medium sizes, with large prawns still remaining limited.
Eastern King
The season has closed until the end of October, with catches expected to be mostly in smaller sizes (10/15), cooked for Christmas.
North QLD Tiger
Catches are well below this time last year, and mostly in 10/12 sizes being cooked for local markets.
Exmouth King and Tiger
Final trips are being conducted for the season, with most left raw for exporting.
Gulf Tiger
The season has produced poor catches and as a result the season is closing early.
Farm Tiger
Frozen production is complete, with only small volumes of fresh (16/20) available into the summer.
Wheat
Market developments according to Mauri ANZ.
Domestic
The long-range forecast for October to December shows an increased wet spring is now looking less likely. This drier outlook will be good for protein however, quality of the harvest will not be known until further into the season. Previous rainfall was lacking in VIC, Southern NSW and parts of SA, with the harvest commencing in central QLD starting with the Downs. Higher offshore prices and a lack of farmers selling has helped to lift domestic prices, with the line up of buyers continuing to outweigh sellers
Global
A firmer tone was recently set in the market, with buyers stepping away as prices fell. Argentina cancelled their export tax on all grains and oilseeds to boost USD funds as buyers swooped in to take advantage, however, the tax was re-installed after three days. Russian wheat export prices have continued to rise, responding to increase demand from importers while shipments accelerated. This is not unusual for this time of the season, however, there is increased competition from all major exporters. The Northern hemisphere harvest is complete without any major issues occurring, with the focus now shifting to winter crop planting.
